New Elections in Germany? Merz’s First 200 Days and the Political Turning Point
Chancellor Merz's first 200 days: Did he deliver his Politikwechsel? We analyze the big reforms, the debt bomb, and the truth about new elections. 🇩🇪
Key Takeaways
- Political instability leads to speculation of new elections; we examine Merz’s controversial tenure and separate facts from rumors.
- Merz promised a political turning point focused on 2% economic growth, bureaucracy cuts, and achieving a strong army.
- Merz reversed his no-new-debt pledge, creating a massive debt-financed fund to modernize infrastructure in Germany.
- Merz’s background and corporate ties fuel debate; supporters praise his business expertise while critics call him a corporate lobbyist.
- Merz’s comments on migration were clarified to target rule-breakers, not expats; critics say the vague phrasing fuels fear and division.
- Rumors of immediate new elections are false, as Merz must resign first; however, his weak position ensures political uncertainty.
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More InformationFact vs. Fake: Separating Political Promise from Reality
Our previous government broke apart after not even three years—that’s why we had elections earlier this year. And now social media is full of videos claiming we’ll have new elections any day now because Chancellor Merz is finished and about to resign. If our governments continue collapsing faster and faster, what does that mean for the future of Germany?
Could we be heading into a new election soon, again? Remember, Merz barely won the vote as chancellor, securing a victory only in the second round because the Bundestag was divided from day one. The political environment remains volatile, with polls suggesting a significant percentage of his own party members are dissatisfied with his performance.
This instability has fueled rampant speculation. To understand the future, we must look at his first 200 days in office, separate fact from fake, see what he promised and what actually happened, and investigate why one of his recent comments about you expats caused his biggest controversy yet.
The Promised Politikwechsel and Its Reception
When Chancellor Merz took office, he announced nothing less than a “Politikwechsel”—a political turning point with the explicit goal of making Germany fit for the future through radical reforms and massive investment. He placed a strong focus on the economy, aiming for at least 2% annual economic growth and prosperity for everyone. His government introduced a national program to cut bureaucracy and simplify approval procedures for people and businesses. Major social reforms were also announced for pensions and healthcare, intending to keep the welfare state both sustainable and fair. And in defense, Merz set the ambition to make the Bundeswehr the “strongest conventional army in Europe“—a goal that would require spending nearly 3.5% of GDP on defense, almost doubling the NATO target.
Supporters say this marks a long-needed shift after years of stagnation. They praise early steps to cut bureaucracy, such as the plan to repeal the controversial Supply Chain Act. On the international stage, allies describe Merz as decisive and reliable, noting his quick efforts to build relationships with key figures like Trump and Zelenskyy. Union figures, like Jens Spahn, even declared, “Germany is back”. The Chancellor himself insists that “the autumn of reforms has already begun,” but asks for patience.
Critics, however, call many of these promises unfulfilled or even broken pledges. Polls show that around 60% of Germans were dissatisfied with his government’s work after the first 100 days, and economists remain skeptical: in one Ifo survey, only 14% rated his economic policy as positive. They criticize the lack of deep structural reforms, arguing that measures like tax breaks for overtime may win votes but fail to fix deeper, systemic problems. Some opposition politicians joke that the promised “Autumn of Reforms” has turned into a “Herbst der Versäumnisse”—an autumn of missed chances.
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More InformationThe €500 Billion Sondervermögen: A Fiscal U-Turn
The biggest and most expensive reform we have to look at is the €500 billion Sondervermögen, a special fund that fundamentally changed Germany’s entire fiscal strategy. Before the election, Friedrich Merz had promised no new debt and repeatedly rejected any reform of the Schuldenbremse (Germany’s constitutional debt brake). However, during coalition talks with the SPD after the early election, he made a massive U-turn and agreed to create this debt-financed fund. The government described it as a historic “Booster” to modernize the country—a one-time investment program designed to fix Germany’s aging infrastructure and restore competitiveness. Merz justified the new borrowing by arguing that debt is acceptable only if it increases the long-term value and performance of the economy, and that future growth would make these loans sustainable.
Supporters call it a historic necessity—Germany’s largest investment program ever—finally tackling the massive backlog in roads, railways, schools, and digital infrastructure. Economists at DIW Berlin estimate the package could lift Germany’s economic output by about 2% per year over the next decade, labeling it a “Befreiungsschlag”—a breakout for a struggling economy.
Critics, however, call the Sondervermögen a breach of trust and a shadow budget. The Association of Taxpayers labels it “Sonderschulden”—special debt disguised as a fund. Analysts from IW Köln argue that only about half of the money goes into new projects, while the rest replaces existing spending or covers consumption-related costs. They point to examples where transport subsidies were shifted out of the core budget and into the fund, meaning the official investment rate in the federal budget actually fell from 12% to 10% in 2025.
The Private Sector Chancellor: Merz's Unusual Story
To truly understand why Merz governs the way he does, we need to look at his personal story—and it’s a pretty unusual one. Friedrich Merz first made national headlines in the 1990s with his idea of the “tax return on a beer mat,” a symbol for his call to radically simplify Germany’s tax system. After losing political influence within the CDU to Angela Merkel in the early 2000s, he left parliament in 2009 and switched to the private sector.
For more than a decade, Merz worked as a corporate lawyer and served on several major boards, including BlackRock Germany and HSBC, earning millions and becoming one of Germany’s wealthiest politicians. He resigned from these positions in 2020 before returning to politics, eventually winning the CDU leadership in 2022 and becoming chancellor in 2025.
Supporters say this mix of business and politics makes him exactly the kind of leader Germany needs—someone who understands both the market and the government. They describe him as “hands-on” with real economic expertise, not just another career politician. His return after years outside politics is often called “the political comeback of the century”.
Critics, conversely, say that this very background makes him too close to corporate interests. They call him a lobbyist and question his independence after years at BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. Some argue that moving from maximizing profits to serving the public good may not happen overnight. Others add that because he had little government experience, he often relies on sharp, populist language that divides rather than unites, exemplified by remarks such as calling young migrants “kleine Paschas”.
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More InformationThe Expats Controversy: Migration and Trust
His latest controversy, about what he said regarding expats, would become his biggest yet. On October 14th, during a press conference, Chancellor Merz was asked about the rise of the AfD. He noted that migration numbers were already down 60% compared to a year earlier and added: “We still see this problem in the cityscape – and that’s why the interior minister is enabling and carrying out large-scale deportations.”
When journalists later asked him to clarify, Merz said: “If you have daughters, ask them what I meant,” referring to security issues in the cities after dusk. After growing criticism, he clarified a few days later that he was referring to migrants without residence status or jobs who break the rules—not expats like you who live and work here legally. He also stressed that Germany depends on immigration into the labor market and cannot function without expats, regardless of skin color.
Supporters say Merz is simply saying out loud what many people think. They call him a realist who talks about issues most politicians avoid, which is why people trust him. A ZDF-Politbarometer found that 63% of respondents agreed with his clarified statement.
Critics, however, say that his words were vague and dangerous. They accuse him of blurring the line between security policy and ethnicity, suggesting that one can see who belongs and who doesn’t. Berlin’s mayor, Kai Wegner, from Merz’s own party, publicly distanced himself, stressing that Berlin is a diverse and open city where problems like violence or poverty can’t be explained by nationality alone. Many journalists and opposition figures argue that Merz’s phrasing fuels fear and distracts from deeper social issues like integration.
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More InformationThe Election Truth: Stability vs. Uncertainty
Whether you see Merz as a straight-talking realist or as a divider, one thing is clear: his first 200 days have sparked more debate than many chancellors before him. So, are new elections in Germany really coming? The truth is, even though some of those videos we see reached tens of thousands of views, they are all FAKE. Germany’s constitutional court cannot simply call new elections; Merz would have to resign himself and intentionally lose a vote of confidence to trigger the process, a maneuver used only a few times in German history.
But it is not absurd to ask the question, because Merz’s position is far from secure, with polls showing dissatisfaction even within his own party. That uncertainty alone sums up German politics right now. In our opinion, it is too early to judge whether his government is succeeding, and too soon to decide if Germany really needs new elections. He should be given more time to prove himself and to show whether his tough tone can lead to real, structural change for the country.